Labor Department Projects Alaska's Population To 2018

March 23, 1999
No. 99-35

If population trends of the 1990s continue for the next two decades, Alaska's total population will grow to 776,488 in 2018. Alaska also will see a different regional distribution and demographic character than it does today. The new 20-year population projections for Alaska's boroughs and census areas were released today by the Alaska Department of Labor.

Projected trends
Based on recent trends, mid-range projections indicate the Anchorage/Matanuska-Susitna region should continue to grow more rapidly than the state as a whole.  In 2018, this region is expected to comprise 51.7% of the state's population and account for 56.9% of the total population growth through 2018. The Northern and Southwestern regions should grow faster than the statewide average of 1.1%, while the Gulf Coast, Interior and Southeast regions will likely grow more slowly.

The largest increase in population share is expected in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which should increase from 8.8% of the state's population in 1998 to 13.2% in 2018.  Mat-Su's annual average growth rate of about 3.3% will be nearly three times higher than the statewide rate.  Other areas expected to grow faster than the state as a whole include the Wade Hampton Census Area, North Slope Borough and Yakutat Borough.

Areas expected to have a net loss of population between 1998 and 2018 are the Valdez-Cordova census area, Yukon-Koyukuk census area, Sitka Borough, Skagway-Hoonah-Angoon census area, Wrangell-Petersburg census area, and Aleutians East Borough.

Older Alaskans
Over the next 20 years, the number and percentage of older Alaskans in the state will increase dramatically. In 2018, Alaska's population age 65 and older is expected to triple to 92,356, up from 32,729 in 1998.  Older Alaskans will comprise almost 12 percent of the total population in 2018, up from 5.3% in 1998.

The Municipality of Anchorage should see the largest increase in older Alaskans (+23,412) followed by Matanuska-Susitna Borough (+7,498), Fairbanks North Star Borough (+6,246), Kenai Peninsula Borough (+6,089), Juneau Borough (+3,319), Ketchikan Borough (+2,077), Valdez-Cordova census area (+1,143), and Kodiak Island Borough (+1,006). Together, these areas should account for 85 percent of the growth in the senior population in the next 20 years.

School age population ages five through 17
If Alaska follows the trend of the 1990s, the number of children ages five through 17 is expected to increase by 12.9% by 2018. Numerically, the greatest growth should occur in Matanuska-Susitna Borough (+ 10,032), Kenai Peninsula Borough (+2,913), Bethel census area (+2,241), Wade Hampton census area (+1,812), Fairbanks North Star Borough (+1,191), Nome census area (+1,134), and North Slope Borough (+1,106). Declines in the school age population are anticipated in the Municipality of Anchorage, Yukon-Koyukuk census area, Sitka Borough, Wrangell-Petersburg census area, Valdez-Cordova census area, Skagway-Hoonah-Angoon census area, Aleutians West census area, Aleutians East Borough, Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan census area, and Kodiak Island Borough.

The Northern and Southwestern areas of the state should increase their shares of the statewide school age population, while the Southeast, Interior and Anchorage/Mat-Su shares are expected to shrink. The largest percentage increase in school age population over the next 20 years should occur in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough (+70.3%), while the school age population in the Municipality of Anchorage should decline by 2.8%.

The Internet tables show projected population by selected age groups and components of change for labor market areas, boroughs, and census areas from 1998 to 2018 for each five-year period. These projections are built upon the birth, death and migration experience for boroughs and census areas during the1990s, excluding the impact of extreme economic events. Alternative economic scenarios will be considered in the next round of population projections.

Detailed statewide population projections by single year of age were published in the September/October issue of Alaska Economic Trends, also on the Internet at

Table 1
Projected Population (Middle Series) by Labor Market
Region and Borough/Census Area, July 1, 1998-2018

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